水资源承载力评价耦合模型的研究进展与干旱区应用 postprint

Abstract: As the scarcity of global water intensifies, accurate assessments of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) have become essential for sustainably managing regional water resources and combating the adverse effects of climate change. However, the water resources-ecology-society system is highly complex, involving multidimensional interactions and dynamic internal changes that cannot be fully captured by a single evaluation method. This paper reviews the application status and research progress of coupled-model methods for WRCC evaluation. A systematic comparative analysis reveals the strengths and limitations of the major evaluation methods—systems analysis, comprehensive evaluation, and machine learning—in WRCC evaluation. Particular attention is devoted to the challenges of these methods in arid regions. The dynamic feedback mechanisms, nonlinear modeling capabilities, data-driven characteristics, and applicabilities of different methods are analyzed through a horizontal comparison study. The review also analyzes the suitabilities and limitations of each method in arid regions and explores the feasibility of coupled models, providing new insights for resolving WRCC issues in these areas. Multimodel integration and data-driven optimization will enhance the generalizability and applicability of models in future, facilitating the transition of water resource management from static evaluation to dynamic simulation and precise prediction. These developments will offer scientific support for sustainable water resource utilization in arid regions and worldwide.