基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三江源土地利用变化动态模拟与生境质量 postprint

Abstract: The ongoing decline in biodiversity adversely effects ecosystem services. Investigating spatiotemporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Three River Source Region is crucial for ecological protection and restoration. This study, based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model’s habitat quality module, conducts multi-scenario simulations to predict land use changes and estimate habitat quality. The results are as follows: (1) During the historical period, 9663.53 km2 of grassland converted to unused land, represented the largest proportion of total land conversion, whereas unused land converted to grassland only covered 3659.27 km2 , the grassland degraded into unused land to a relatively serious extent in the Three River Source Region. (2) Multi-scenario predictions for 2030 reveal that the biodiversity conservation scenario performs best, followed by the grassland protection scenario, then the water resources protection scenario, and finally the natural development scenario. (3) Among conversion types, the contribution rate of converting unused land to grassland in enhancing habitat quality is highest at 0.7167, followed by that of converting unused land to water bodies, at 0.2603. Implementing biodiversity protection strategies, resolving the grass-livestock conflict, and enhancing management of unused land, while reducing grassland-to-unused land conversion will help mitigate the decline in habitat quality.